I will not be surprised when I extend this rollout and it drops into the pass zone. The more I looked at it when everyone was taking so easily the more I felt it was a pass. Initially I glanced at it realized what a huge double it was and my work was done. As I said before all my numbers play well with only 6 of them not covering the blot on the 5 pt. Those would be 5-2, 6-5, 5-5, 6-6. You can see that 5-2 either hits a 2nd blot or makes the 3 pt., 6-5 can make the 3 pt, 5-5 makes the 3 pt. and 6-6 puts another blot up while making a point! In other words you're trying to enter at least one man next turn against a 3 pt. board. This means next turn alone you fan 1/4 times which will lead me down the juicy gammon lane. It doesn't help either that you have that other blot floating in your outfield giving me something to pick off if I get a chance.
Again, I will extend this rollout but it will be sometime later this week before I get all these 'extendable rollouts' posted. Don't expect you to get anywhere near an easy take, I think you'll be lucky if it stays a take at all.
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| 152 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.614 | |
| 1.9% 31.9% 68.0% 32.0% 7.9% 0.5% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.614 ±0.011, - live cube no double: 0.773 ±0.018, - live cube double take: 0.991 ±0.031. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1620 games (equiv. 45843 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | Double, pass | 1.000 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.764 | (-0.236) |
| 3. | Double, take | 0.993 | (-0.007) |
| Proper cube action: Double, pass | |||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | Double, take | 0.991 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.773 | (-0.218) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.009) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||