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XG and Luck

Posted By: DJansen
Date: Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 2:16 p.m.

In Response To: XG and Luck (eXtreme Gammon)

This is a 7-pointer from DailyGammon. Once again I really don`t understand.

PR: A 6.90 B 9.36 (analyze setting is world class)

A is "quite unlucky" so he loses the match, no surprise.

Based on PR, Elo calculator would make A about 56% favorit, right?

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Equity (Cost): A 1.243 (-11.42%) B 1.722 (-17.70%)

Decisions A:96 B:92

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Now, based on mwc I wouldn`t expect XG to give A less than 56% but

Luck (Cost): A -3.334( -51.76%) B +3.334 (+51.76%)

Rolls: A 84 B 83

Luck based rating: A 51.76% B 48.24%

Less than 52%? So what`s happened here?

Messages In This Thread

• XG and Luck
  Stick -- Wednesday, 15 August 2012, at 11:44 p.m.
  • XG and Luck
    David Rennie -- Wednesday, 15 August 2012, at 11:52 p.m.
    • XG and Luck
      Michael Petch -- Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 2:33 a.m.
      • XG and Luck
        Michael Petch -- Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 2:40 a.m.
        • XG and Luck
          Jason Lee -- Friday, 17 August 2012, at 12:37 a.m.
      • XG and Luck
        RealNick -- Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 11:31 p.m.
        • XG and Luck
          Michael Petch -- Friday, 17 August 2012, at 1:28 a.m.
  • XG and Luck
    eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 1:15 a.m.
    • XG and Luck
      Stick -- Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 2:30 a.m.
    • XG and Luck
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 3:15 a.m.
    • XG and Luck
      David Levy -- Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 4:09 a.m.
    • XG and Luck
      DJansen -- Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 2:16 p.m.
      • XG and Luck ~ VR and the pitfall of equity based luck.
        eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 17 August 2012, at 3:35 a.m.