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Rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 18 August 2012, at 11:26 p.m.

In Response To: 51 to play (John O'Hagan)

13/8 6/5x is right by a lot. Making the ace point is clearly weaker even though Black could roll a bad 6 and be forced to leave you a (probable winning) direct shot. The problem is that Black will often stay on the 20 and play his entire roll by making a 5 or 5.5 point board. If this happens, most of your numbers will force you to leave a direct shot or weaken your board.

18/13 6/5x gives the oppt more ways to hit from the roof, fewer ways for you to cover the 5 if not hit, and less life after death for you if you do get hit. Not a good combination.

13/8 and hit does get g'd a lot more than making the ace but the ratio of extra wins/extra net g's lost is over 1/2 which makes it correct at this normal match score. White should also remember to turn the cube if Black dances.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 95
11 point match
pip: 104
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--CBCaC-----bB----Bcbcac--:0:0:1:15:0:0:0:11:10
to play 15

1.Rollout113/8 6/5* eq: -0.029
Player:
Opponent:		50.09% (G:10.18% B:0.22%)
49.91% (G:24.87% B:0.78%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.039...-0.019) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout118/13 6/5* eq: -0.153 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent:		46.73% (G:8.36% B:0.29%)
53.27% (G:25.40% B:0.40%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.161...-0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: -0.201 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:		43.93% (G:3.86% B:0.06%)
56.07% (G:7.35% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.209...-0.193) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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