BGonline.org Forums

Three in one

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 20 August 2012, at 2:38 a.m.

In Response To: Three in one (Marcos Nahhas)

White needs 25% wins to take and doesn't care about losing a gammon. Blue is forced to blot immediately with 64 61 54, which is only 6 rolls, but White has some time to wait, and unless Blue fills in the 3pt gap (not easy), he will have persistent blotting danger, since only 11 rolls clear the 8pt cleanly. I think White can take, but I'm not sure, so I'd double here.

The 53 is interesting. I'm inclined to pay later with 6/1 4/1 regardless of cube position. If we play 8/3 6/3 then we can assume that White wins if and only if she hits immediately (this is surely true with the cube centered), giving her about 64% winning chances, and I think we can do better than that by waiting. (It's possible that 8/5 8/3 is slightly better than 8/3 6/3 but if so then I don't think it's by much.)

Messages In This Thread

• Three in one
  Marcos Nahhas -- Sunday, 19 August 2012, at 4:03 p.m.
  • Three in one
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 August 2012, at 2:38 a.m.
  • Three in one
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 26 August 2012, at 10:53 p.m.
    • Three in one - Rollout
      smcrtorchs -- Tuesday, 28 August 2012, at 5:19 p.m.
      • Three in one - Rollout
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 28 August 2012, at 6:20 p.m.
  • Three in one
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 26 August 2012, at 11:06 p.m.