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Ray vs Neil SF LC finals cube action

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 20 August 2012, at 3:00 a.m.

In Response To: Ray vs Neil SF LC finals cube action (neilkaz)

24 rolls blot; 4 of these take 4 checkers off, and the rest take 1 or 2 checkers off. The 20 that take 1 or 2 checkers off also come with significant re-blotting potential. I'd guess that White hits about 11 times out of 36. Hitting doesn't guarantee a win, of course, but White is a strong favorite. White could also get a shot later even if Blue rolls one of his non-blotting rolls. Altogether I think White can probably cobble together at least 9 wins out of 36, giving her a take.

Does Blue lose his market if White doesn't hit immediately? I think he probably does, despite the reblotting danger. That would argue for doubling. The only thing is that doubling kills Blue's gammons. However, if it's close to a pass, which I think it is, then I think the technically correct decision is D/T. But ND is probably not a big error.

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