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Ray vs Neil SF LC finals cube action

Posted By: Christian Munk-Christensen
Date: Monday, 20 August 2012, at 7:31 a.m.

In Response To: Ray vs Neil SF LC finals cube action (neilkaz)

White's TP is 25%.

White is toast in the race and must hit a shot to win this game.

22 rolls blot so blue can expect to be hit 7 times on the first sequence.

OtB I am not going to spend the time to figure out how many times I get hit on the 2nd sequence in case I am missed on the first sequence. Since some of the blot-rolls on the first shake are big doublets which bear off 4 checkers, there will be fewer hits on the 2nd sequence.

I will estimate 5 hits on the 2nd sequence.

Not all of the hits will be winners since blue may have up to 5 checkers off when he gets hit (in freak scenarios sometimes more). I will expect white to win 80% of the hits.

This means white will win around 9,5 games. That should make it a small take. If white is significantly stronger than blue, then white should probably pass.

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