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Ray vs Neil SF LC finals cube action

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Monday, 20 August 2012, at 2:07 p.m.

In Response To: Ray vs Neil SF LC finals cube action (neilkaz)

ND/T looks clear. The take is the easy part. White hits 6.76/36 on the next roll and probably more than 1/6 (~ 5.24 ,to make the math easy) in the remaining games. Blue rarely wins after being hit, especially if it occurs on a repeat shot, as White's board will likely be closed by then. Of the 12 hits, Blue probably wins 1 1/2 of them, at most. He will win some by entering immediately when White does not have a closed board and about 7% of the games when White does. This would give White around 10.5 wins.

I estimate gammons for Blue at 25%, based on 8 long crossovers and one short one fro White.

Blue gains 25% on his regular wins by doubling and nothing on his gammon wins. White gains 50% on his wins when he is doubled and auto-recubes.

Blue gains 25% on 75% of his wins = 18.75%. White gains 50% on his wins.

Since .5(White's gain)*10.5(White's wins) > .1875(Blue's gain)*25.5 (Blue's wins), Blue should wait.

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