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OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 21 August 2012, at 2:16 a.m.

In Response To: Ray vs Neil SF LC finals cube action (neilkaz)

OTB my initial thoughts were that Ray's cube here, after he'd been playing on for a G and rolled a poor 22 was justified but inspite of an open 6 pt, I looked to try to calculate (guestimate) a take here. He has 22 blotting rolls right away and 32 and 22 don't leave him much risk as well. When considering that he could leave a repeat shot or could roll a nice ace this turn and still blot later, perhaps with a double blotting two, it was clear to me that I could hit him MUCH more than 25% and that inspite of a currently unclosed 6 pt and he often having a few checkers off when hit and closed out, I was certain that I had clearly over 25% and took. Upon realizing that my take was clear, I began to doubt the accuracy of Ray's cube, AtS since he can still win a G. Ray rolled a nice 41 but then a horrid 52 but I missed both blots and had failed in my 3rd attempt to place in an ABT event and temporarily retake the ABT lead in the past seven days!

In defense of Ray's decision to cube me, later in the evening I saw some Giants/Experts discussing and seriously doubting the accuracy of my take. This is a discussion that they need to continue at Burger King.





White is Player 1

score: 2
pip: 103
5 point match
pip: 27
score: 3

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BBBBBA---AA---------cbBi-:0:0:-1:00:2:3:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.976% (G:29.310% B:1.121%) 72.135% (G:39.152% B:0.753%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.870% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 27.865% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Cubeless Equities +1.0222 +1.4825
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.9311±0.0026 (+0.9285..+0.9338)
Double/Take:+0.7654 (-0.1657)±0.0098 (+0.7556..+0.7753)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0689)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 41.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78623594
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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