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Comment about gammons

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 22 August 2012, at 10:51 p.m.

In Response To: Comment about gammons (Stick)

I believe Tim wanted to know (a) how often the position becomes redouble/take and (b) how often White therefore actually wins 4 points (or more) instead of two, in comparison to the "cubeless" gammon rate in Petter's rollout, which was only 2.1%. Also, his interest in this position is in the context of his more general interest in the use and misuse of "cubeless" statistics in cubeful positions.

My rollout found that White won 4 or more points about 7.4% of the time, not 2.1%. I might point out, however, that isn't a net gain for White, since White doesn't win all the games in which the cube reaches four. Blue won 4 or more points about 7.0% of the time, not the "cubeless" 5.6%.

My rollout was about 1,000 trials long, which I think was long enough to answer Tim's questions with fair accuracy, even though the results of what actually happens in the rollout aren't variance reduced.

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