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Rollout: -- with 3/off 1/off

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 23 August 2012, at 3:02 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Which point to break? (Timothy Chow)

In the original position, where Blue has 2 checkers off before the play, 3/off 1/off is a blunder:

White	44
Me	43
Position ID: xwMAgG7bBgAAAA Match ID: QonlAAAAAAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	3/2 3/off	+0.270636
			0.686715 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.313285 0.000000 0.000000 +0.373430 +0.270636 0.000509 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.000509 0.000000 0.000000 0.001018 0.001529
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 688932251 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	6/5 6/3	+0.215325 ( -0.055311)
			0.663286 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.336714 0.000000 0.000000 +0.326572 +0.215325 0.000450 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.000450 0.000000 0.000000 0.000901 0.001355
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 688932251 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	3/off 1/off	+0.140238 ( -0.130398)
			0.644640 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.355360 0.000000 0.000000 +0.289280 +0.140238 0.000722 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.000722 0.000000 0.000000 0.001444 0.002035
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 688932251 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

If Blue has only one checker off before the play, 3/off 1/off is not a blunder, but still not best:

White	44
Me	44
Position ID: xwMAgN62DQAAAA Match ID: QonlAAAAAAAE

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.025)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	3/2 3/off	+0.058209
			0.598250 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.401750 0.000000 0.000000 +0.196500 +0.058209 0.000330 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.000330 0.000000 0.000000 0.000659 0.001002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2899 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 689099689 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	3/off 1/off	+0.033523 ( -0.024687)
			0.596332 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.403668 0.000000 0.000000 +0.192663 +0.033523 0.000503 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.000503 0.000000 0.000000 0.001006 0.001526
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2898 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 689099689 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	6/5 6/3	+0.032877 ( -0.025332)
			0.590848 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.409152 0.000000 0.000000 +0.181695 +0.032877 0.000288 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.000288 0.000000 0.000000 0.000576 0.000922
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2899 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 689099689 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Which point to break?
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 21 August 2012, at 5:15 p.m.
  • Which point to break?
    Prince Barlow -- Tuesday, 21 August 2012, at 6:05 p.m.
  • Which One here?
    Prince Barlow -- Tuesday, 21 August 2012, at 6:25 p.m.
  • Which point to break?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 21 August 2012, at 6:30 p.m.
    • Which point to break?
      Prince Barlow -- Tuesday, 21 August 2012, at 6:38 p.m.
      • Which point to break?
        Keene -- Tuesday, 21 August 2012, at 7:38 p.m.
        • Which point to break?
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 21 August 2012, at 7:57 p.m.
        • Which point to break?
          Prince Barlow -- Wednesday, 22 August 2012, at 1:57 a.m.
  • Which point to break?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 21 August 2012, at 8:49 p.m.
  • Which point to break?
    Keene -- Wednesday, 22 August 2012, at 2:20 p.m.
  • Rollout: Which point to break?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 23 August 2012, at 2:01 a.m.
    • Rollout: -- with 3/off 1/off
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 23 August 2012, at 3:02 a.m.
      • Rollout: -- with 3/off 1/off
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 23 August 2012, at 3:52 a.m.