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Shot Time! Extra Checker off? or Extra Gammon Chances?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 23 August 2012, at 9:36 a.m.

In Response To: Shot Time! Extra Checker off? or Extra Gammon Chances? (ah_clem)

Thank you, and thanks for your frequent postings in which you clearly present the reasons for the decisions you make. I think that's very helpful to readers, and not only when your choice is correct!

I wanted to add this: suppose that 6/off 1/off gets hit 11/36 of the time immediately and never thereafter (which is true). That's 30.55%. Since White should now double Blue out, Blue wins 69.44% of the time with this play (the race is a near cinch -- 6-6 gives White only 1.2% GWC). Suppose that 6/off 6/5* gets hit the same 11/36 immediately, and gets hit another 1.5% of the time later but, to use your estimate, Blue retains 11% winning chances after getting hit. This would mean that Blue's total wins after 6/off 6/5* are

69.44% - 1.5%, which is 67.94, plus 0.11 * 32.06, which is 3.52%, so total wins are 71.46%. That's 2% wins than 6/off 1/off gets, but 6/off 6/5* should easily win enough extra gammons to compensate. And indeed, a Gnubg rollout has 6/off 6/5* winning 6.4% gammons, while 6/off 1/off wins 0.1%. It also has 6/off 1/off winning 1.8% more games, and has 6/off 6/5* better by only 0.034 EMG equity = 0.44% ME. But I think that a robust enough XG rollout should have 6/off 6/5* ahead by a bit more than 0.034, since Gnubg fails to double out after 6/5* 6/off and a hit (Gnubg probably makes very few bad takes, however, so the cube error shouldn't make too much difference).

We should also mention the match score. Getting to 3-away all instead of 5-away 3-away is worth 14.8% ME to Blue, while losing the game instead of winning a single game costs 25.9% ME. This means that the more gammonish play needs to win 1.75 extra gammons for every extra loss. If the Gnubg rollout isn't too far off, 6/off 6/5* wins about 3.5 extra gammons per extra loss: good enough.

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