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Somewhat busted backgame cube action

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 27 August 2012, at 1:04 p.m.

In Response To: Somewhat busted backgame cube action (neilkaz)

This seems like a pass to me. White has a few immediate shots after 65 63 or 44, and blue will have a poor distribution after 55 (maybe some others) but most of the time it'll turn into an acepoint game, possibly with a checker on the bar. That seems like a pas to me.

More difficult is whether it's too good. I see 9 shakes that put white on the bar, and 6 shakes that leave a shot. If all shots lost and all hits won a gammon it would be easy - blue doesn't have the 2-1 ratio of gammon wins to single point losses to play on. But not all shot leaving shakes lose - white still has to hit ant then contain the checker. Hitting is only ~50% and I'll make the rough approximation that blue escapes from a hit about as often as white saves gammon when she is hit.

So the rough back of the envelope calculation would only count shot leaving shakes at 50%, so it's 9 to 3, more than the 2-1 needed to play on. So, play on.

ND/P (too good to double)

Messages In This Thread

• Somewhat busted backgame cube action
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 26 August 2012, at 8:16 p.m.
  • Somewhat busted backgame cube action
    Michael Petch -- Sunday, 26 August 2012, at 8:18 p.m.
    • Somewhat busted backgame cube action
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 26 August 2012, at 10:07 p.m.
  • Somewhat busted backgame cube action
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 27 August 2012, at 12:38 a.m.
  • Somewhat busted backgame cube action
    ah_clem -- Monday, 27 August 2012, at 1:04 p.m.
  • OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 28 August 2012, at 3:20 p.m.