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Rollout: Stick vs. Bagai?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 27 August 2012, at 10:40 p.m.

In Response To: Stick vs. Bagai? (Timothy Chow)

5/1* 3/1 gives White a 55 joker, but otherwise Blue has a cash (or very close to a cash) even if White hits, so 5/1* 3/1 gives Blue extra gammons almost for free. Note that the cubeless win percentage is misleading here.

OTB Stick played safe.

The rollout below was done with XG2; I got it from Stick's post here.





White is David Rockwell

score: 2
pip: 48
11 point match
pip: 35
score: 9

Blue is Stick
XGID=-aDCBB-----------a-----cj-:0:0:1:42:9:2:0:11:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout15/1* 3/1eq: +1.094
Player:
Opponent:
93.35% (G:8.03% B:0.13%)
6.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf: 0.001 (+1.093...+1.095)
Duration: 6.8 seconds
2.Rollout14/0ff 2/0ffeq: +1.071 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
95.42% (G:5.55% B:0.08%)
4.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf: 0.001 (+1.070...+1.072)
Duration: 9.6 seconds
3.Rollout14/2 4/0ffeq: +1.047 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
99.01% (G:3.09% B:0.03%)
0.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf: 0.001 (+1.046...+1.048)
Duration: 5.5 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45865824
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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