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32S-21X-42H-32X-63R-11 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 28 August 2012, at 6:35 a.m.

In Response To: Mochy’s tough 11 against Michy (Taper_Mike)

In the early game, when I have four checkers in the opponent’s inner board, I like to make his 5pt.

— Paraphrasal of a statement by Nack Ballard

I think Mochy may have been thinking along these lines when he opted to make his 21pt with this 11. He can speak for himself, but it seems to me that he was more interested in grabbing a high anchor than he was in committing to play a backgame. Granted, it seems odd to then slot the bar point with the final ace, but my sense is that he thought of it as a two-way game plan. If Michy were to miss the double shot, the he would continue building his prime, and go forward. And were Michy to hit, then he could fall back on the backgame.

Mochy’s play was S = Split (23/21, 22/21, 8/7). It’s a whopper, the twelfth-best play overall. According to the rollout below, it is not even the best play that makes the 21pt. The simple
@ = Anchor (24/21, 22/21) earns that honor.

Almost any play that makes the 4pt is better than making the 21pt, and with a roll of 11, there are plenty to choose from. The strongest makes a point on both sides of the board, and then slots the bar point. Second best is to make the 5pt. It’s wrong, but stands out nevertheless as the only play in the top 10 that does not make the 4pt.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 180
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--A-C-Ca--cEb--c-e--AAA-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout123/22 8/7 6/4eq: -0.2495
Player:
Opponent:
44.47% (G:11.11% B:0.42%)
55.53% (G:15.92% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ±0.0060 (-0.2554...-0.2435) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.2744 (-0.0250)
Player:
Opponent:
44.67% (G:11.31% B:0.49%)
55.33% (G:18.97% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ±0.0067 (-0.2812...-0.2677) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
3.Rollout224/22 6/4eq: -0.2855 (-0.0360)
Player:
Opponent:
43.28% (G:10.51% B:0.42%)
56.72% (G:14.99% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ±0.0082 (-0.2937...-0.2773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
4.Rollout28/7(2) 6/4eq: -0.2866 (-0.0372)
Player:
Opponent:
43.81% (G:11.12% B:0.48%)
56.19% (G:17.62% B:1.03%)
Conf.: ±0.0088 (-0.2954...-0.2779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
5.Rollout28/4eq: -0.2909 (-0.0414)
Player:
Opponent:
43.13% (G:11.24% B:0.48%)
56.87% (G:16.27% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ±0.0082 (-0.2991...-0.2827) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
6.Rollout222/20 6/4eq: -0.2939 (-0.0444)
Player:
Opponent:
43.36% (G:11.04% B:0.43%)
56.64% (G:16.62% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ±0.0087 (-0.3026...-0.2852) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
7.Rollout222/21 8/7 6/4eq: -0.2988 (-0.0494)
Player:
Opponent:
43.80% (G:11.08% B:0.46%)
56.20% (G:17.95% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ±0.0086 (-0.3074...-0.2903) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
8.Rollout223/21 6/4eq: -0.3154 (-0.0660)
Player:
Opponent:
42.85% (G:10.46% B:0.44%)
57.15% (G:16.33% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ±0.0082 (-0.3237...-0.3072) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
9.Rollout224/23 22/21 6/4eq: -0.3202 (-0.0708)
Player:
Opponent:
42.49% (G:10.34% B:0.43%)
57.51% (G:15.58% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ±0.0082 (-0.3284...-0.3120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
10.Rollout224/23 8/7 6/4eq: -0.3359 (-0.0865)
Player:
Opponent:
42.82% (G:10.50% B:0.45%)
57.18% (G:17.81% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ±0.0087 (-0.3447...-0.3272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
11.Rollout224/21 22/21eq: -0.3648 (-0.1154)
Player:
Opponent:
41.50% (G:9.42% B:0.37%)
58.50% (G:16.18% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ±0.0095 (-0.3743...-0.3554) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
12.Rollout223/21 22/21 8/7eq: -0.3661 (-0.1166)
Player:
Opponent:
42.23% (G:9.76% B:0.39%)
57.77% (G:18.38% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ±0.0101 (-0.3762...-0.3560) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
13.Rollout26/5(2) 6/4eq: -0.3885 (-0.1391)
Player:
Opponent:
41.08% (G:9.84% B:0.42%)
58.92% (G:16.84% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ±0.0085 (-0.3970...-0.3801) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52135550
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52135550
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2012-Aug-27
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
32S-21X-42H-32X-63R-11-tm.xgp
[M P25 E36 N37 p41 e44 m49 E66 e71 M86 @115 S117 i139] "<=10*5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

32S-21X-42H-32X-63R-11 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Rollout by
XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 52135550 –249.5 [M P25 E36 N37 p41 e44 m49 E66 e71 M86 @115 S117 i139] "<=10*5 Taper_Mike

Mike

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