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51S-54S-22N-61P-51A-43H-62H-53H-65R-52E-63R-42K-42-C-31 — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 29 August 2012, at 6:21 p.m.

In Response To: I guess I was hoping for POH... (Taper_Mike)

–
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 174
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Ac-a-DBCAAAb----d-cBb----:1:-1:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 13

1.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.3804
Player:
Opponent:		66.79% (G:23.67% B:1.32%)
33.21% (G:7.42% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ±0.0051 (+0.3752...+0.3855) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout111/8 10/9eq: +0.2601 (-0.1202)
Player:
Opponent:		62.98% (G:21.27% B:1.02%)
37.02% (G:7.58% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ±0.0053 (+0.2548...+0.2654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 46 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37564033
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2012-Aug-28
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
51S-54S-22N-61P-51A-43H-62H-53H-65R-52E-63R-42K-42-C-31-tm.xgp
[P D120] "<=5
[P D117] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

White: 51S-54S-22N-61P-51A-43H-62H-53H-65R-52E-63R-42K-42-C-31 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Rollout by
XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 37564033 +380.4 [P D120] "<=5 Taper_Mike
XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] +386.2 [P D117] "&e Taper_Mike

This is one for beginners and intermediates. What I like about this position is that the two choices are so clear cut, and that one of them is so very wrong. Blue can play safe, by making the 9pt, or else he can let it all hang out, and make the 5pt.

Blue has an advanced anchor, and 13 checkers in the zone. His best plan is to play against the three White checkers stacked on the 2pt. He wants to prime them, and making the 5pt is his next objective. This roll allows him to do that. The double direct-shot isn’t fun, but if White elects to hit with the blot on the 4pt, he will have to forego the opportunity to advance his anchor. Blue’s 4-point block will nicely prime the 3 checkers left behind.

The problem with playing safe is that it leaves such an inflexible position. Blue would still want to make his 5pt next, but he would only have two builders for the job. Playing safe in the follow up would require tossing a couple of naturals.

Mike

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