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Make the best of this

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 1 September 2012, at 4:54 p.m.

In Response To: Make the best of this (Daniel Murphy)

Blue leads 5a6a, so for White to take the recube to 8, she needs at least 11% winning chances. Without any calculation I think it's obvious she has a lot more than that, so the take is trivial.

If we pretend that this is a last-roll position (which it isn't, really) then by doubling, Blue is risking about 25% MWC to gain about 11% MWC, so he needs to be about a 70% favorite to justify turning the cube. Only 19 rolls hit, and even if Blue hits he might not lose his market, so the double looks like a blunder to me.

With the cube turned, it's DMP, so I'm not touching the back checker. But I think White will hit only if it's in her interests to do so, so in general we don't want to leave unnecessary shots unless it really gives us extra coverage. So I play 13/11 and am not sure about 11/10 versus 5/4. 13/11 5/4 I guess is a bit better; we might make the 4pt, and if it turns into a race then filling the gap will be a benefit.

With Blue holding the cube on 4, we have to worry about getting gammoned. 16/13 basically eliminates the gammon threat, but gives up the opportunity to maintain contact if White advances 5, 6, or 7 pips. QF suggests that the right play is different, but although I think the decision is closer, I'd still play 13/11 5/4.

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