I considered both 2nd and 3rd best but didn't even think about not hitting here when we're 65 pips behind before the roll. Even with the responses from those who got it right I'm still having trouble verbalizing why this is the best play and how to classify this position. Best I can tell staying connected and having a spare on the 18 is taking precedence over hitting.
Against an opponent that you think doesn't play high contact, complicated positions correctly (or with more errors than you do) do you think that when it's this close that the hit might be better? XG is assuming perfect play and opponents equally matched. When this isn't the case might the hit make it's way to the top?
           
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | | 1 point match | pip: 188
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=------DaC-A-dB-a--Bdc-BbA-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:1:0 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 10/5 | eq: -0.182 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.91% (G:6.61% B:0.95%)
59.09% (G:28.22% B:1.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.188...-0.176) - [98.9%]
Duration: 28 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7* | eq: -0.193 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.35% (G:7.38% B:0.77%)
59.65% (G:37.51% B:5.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.199...-0.186) - [0.7%]
Duration: 31 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/7* 10/5 | eq: -0.195 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.26% (G:7.23% B:0.76%)
59.74% (G:40.71% B:8.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.202...-0.187) - [0.4%]
Duration: 34 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross