Make the best of this

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Make the best of this - Rollouts

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 4 September 2012, at 3:47 a.m.

In Response To: Make the best of this (Daniel Murphy)

(1) At DMP, pick'em:
The score is: White 11, Blue 12 (match to 17 points)
Move number 6: Blue to play 21

White 50

Blue 71
Position ID: 9zsDIAB3cwMiAA Match ID: QwklArAAYAAE

# Ply Move Equity

1 R 16/13 -0.68237

0.15881 0.00156 0.00001 - 0.84119 0.00242 0.00000 -0.68237 -0.68237

0.00016 0.00052 0.00000 - 0.00016 0.00092 0.00000 0.00031 0.00031

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

• 2 R 6/4 5/4 -0.68298 ( -0.00061)

0.15851 0.00565 0.00005 - 0.84149 0.06844 0.00067 -0.68298 -0.68298

0.00027 0.00120 0.00004 - 0.00027 0.00355 0.00045 0.00055 0.00055

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 5/2 -0.69643 ( -0.01406)

0.15178 0.00178 0.00001 - 0.84822 0.07111 0.00005 -0.69643 -0.69643

0.00062 0.00059 0.00000 - 0.00062 0.00755 0.00001 0.00125 0.00125

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4 R 13/11 5/4 -0.69668 ( -0.01431)

0.15166 0.00008 0.00006 - 0.84834 0.08571 0.00011 -0.69668 -0.69668

0.00080 0.01243 0.00006 - 0.00080 0.00900 0.00005 0.00160 0.00160

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5 R 5/3 2/1 -0.69880 ( -0.01642)

0.15060 0.00002 0.00001 - 0.84940 0.05887 0.00004 -0.69880 -0.69880

0.00056 0.00661 0.00000 - 0.00056 0.00716 0.00001 0.00111 0.00111

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

6 R 13/11 2/1 -0.69904 ( -0.01667)

0.15048 0.00000 0.00001 - 0.84952 0.06911 0.00007 -0.69904 -0.69904

0.00057 0.02122 0.00000 - 0.00057 0.00803 0.00004 0.00113 0.00113

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

7 R 13/12 5/3 -0.70058 ( -0.01820)

0.14971 0.00218 0.00001 - 0.85029 0.06673 0.00006 -0.70058 -0.70058

0.00064 0.00047 0.00001 - 0.00064 0.00749 0.00002 0.00128 0.00128

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

8 R 13/10 -0.70817 ( -0.02580)

0.14592 0.00177 0.00001 - 0.85408 0.06389 0.00003 -0.70817 -0.70817

0.00063 0.00134 0.00001 - 0.00063 0.00778 0.00001 0.00126 0.00126

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

(2) 4-cube in hand, a nod to 16/13 because everything else costs 2% or more gammon losses. I might have thought that holding the cube Blue ought also to gain from playing for the racing redouble, instead of some combination of many hits and a few antijokers, but a comparison of cubeless and cubeful equities doesn't show that cube vig favors 16/13.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 11, Blue 12 (match to 17 points)
Move number 4: Blue to play 21

White 50

Blue 71
Position ID: 9zsDIAB3cwMiAA Match ID: UgklArAAYAAE

• Blue moves 6/4 5/4

Cube decision

2-ply cubeless equity +0.05870 (Money: +0.06284 +0.05870)

0.52940 0.00742 0.00000 - 0.47060 0.00337 0.00000

Cubeful equities:

1. No double +0.16049

2. Double, pass +1.00000 +0.83951

3. Double, take -0.13461 -0.29510

Proper cube action: No redouble, take (26.0%)

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.017)

Alert: very unlucky roll! ( -0.726)

# Ply Move Equity

1 R 16/13 -0.66001

0.15870 0.00137 0.00001 - 0.84130 0.00015 0.00000 -0.68253 -0.66001

0.00015 0.00050 0.00000 - 0.00015 0.00002 0.00000 0.00031 0.00041

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

• 2 R 6/4 5/4 -0.67667 ( -0.01666)

0.15897 0.00277 0.00001 - 0.84103 0.02482 0.00057 -0.70192 -0.67667

0.00029 0.00079 0.00000 - 0.00029 0.00067 0.00027 0.00066 0.00074

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 694561117 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 13/11 5/4 -0.68264 ( -0.02263)

0.15503 0.00092 0.00001 - 0.84497 0.02470 0.00013 -0.70956 -0.68264

0.00118 0.00053 0.00000 - 0.00118 0.00224 0.00004 0.00218 0.00244

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

194 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695182196 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4 R 5/2 -0.68382 ( -0.02381)

0.15334 0.00200 0.00000 - 0.84666 0.02205 0.00086 -0.71110 -0.68382

0.00093 0.00109 0.00002 - 0.00093 0.00122 0.00071 0.00188 0.00211

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

195 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695182196 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5 R 13/11 2/1 -0.68509 ( -0.02508)

0.15260 0.00183 0.00001 - 0.84740 0.02165 0.00017 -0.71223 -0.68509

0.00084 0.00081 0.00001 - 0.00084 0.00143 0.00008 0.00175 0.00198

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

194 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695182196 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

6 R 5/3 2/1 -0.68855 ( -0.02855)

0.15152 0.00114 0.00000 - 0.84848 0.02210 0.00090 -0.71485 -0.68855

0.00089 0.00046 0.00002 - 0.00089 0.00117 0.00071 0.00179 0.00200

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

194 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695182196 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

7 R 13/12 5/3 -0.69015 ( -0.03015)

0.15054 0.00168 0.00000 - 0.84946 0.02043 0.00009 -0.71530 -0.69015

0.00099 0.00090 0.00001 - 0.00099 0.00130 0.00003 0.00179 0.00199

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

194 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695182196 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

8 R 13/10 -0.69959 ( -0.03959)

0.14692 0.00458 0.00000 - 0.85308 0.02205 0.00551 -0.72385 -0.69959

0.00097 0.00345 0.00000 - 0.00097 0.00159 0.00418 0.00180 0.00207

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

194 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695182196 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	50

Blue	71
Position ID: `9zsDIAB3cwMiAA` Match ID: `QwklArAAYAAE`

White	50

Blue	71
Position ID: `9zsDIAB3cwMiAA` Match ID: `UgklArAAYAAE`

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity	+0.05870	(Money: +0.06284 +0.05870)
	0.52940 0.00742 0.00000 - 0.47060 0.00337 0.00000
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.16049
2.	Double, pass	+1.00000	+0.83951
3.	Double, take	-0.13461	-0.29510
Proper cube action:	No redouble, take (26.0%)

Messages In This Thread

Make the best of this
Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 1 September 2012, at 12:40 a.m.
- Make the best of this
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 1 September 2012, at 4:54 p.m.
- Make the best of this
  Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 1 September 2012, at 11:49 p.m.
- Make the best of this
  Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 2 September 2012, at 12:21 a.m.
- Make the best of this - Rollouts
  Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 4 September 2012, at 3:47 a.m.

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:
If necessary, enter your password below:
Password: