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33 Bear Off

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 5 September 2012, at 12:21 a.m.

In Response To: 33 Bear Off (poseidon)

The only viable candidates I see are 3/off(4) and 5/2*(3) 3/off. Both leave the same number of immediate shots. If we're not hit, 5/2*(3) 3/off almost entirely solves our problems, winning the game with very high probability and also a gammon with high probability. Very few backgammons, though. After 3/off(4), we have a lot more long-term blotting danger even if we're not hit immediately.

If we are hit immediately, then 3/off(4) has the advantage of taking 3 extra checkers off, but there's elevated risk of getting a second or even a third checker sent back, so I'm not even sure that 3/off(4) wins more often in the variations where we are hit.

3/off(4) probably wins more gammons but since White still has reasonable winning chances, I think wins are more important to think about than gammons.

3/off(4) wins some backgammons but the backgammon value is diminished ATS.

5/2*(3) 3/off looks better to me.

Messages In This Thread

• 33 Bear Off
  poseidon -- Tuesday, 4 September 2012, at 7:06 p.m.
  • 33 Bear Off
    Keene -- Tuesday, 4 September 2012, at 9:07 p.m.
    • 33 Bear Off
      poseidon -- Tuesday, 4 September 2012, at 9:14 p.m.
  • 33 Bear Off
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 5 September 2012, at 12:21 a.m.
    • 33 Bear Off
      poseidon -- Wednesday, 5 September 2012, at 7:19 a.m.
      • 33 Bear Off
        Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 5 September 2012, at 10:08 a.m.
        • 33 Bear Off
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 5 September 2012, at 10:20 a.m.
  • 33 Bear Off
    Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 5 September 2012, at 10:29 a.m.
  • Rollout
    poseidon -- Wednesday, 5 September 2012, at 4:41 p.m.