I was surprised by the huge differences between the best play and the rest.
Here is the rollout for the actual position followed by one with the cube turned (and reshipped). I suspect the Large Equity difference before roll are just showing that there will be a double/take/redouble soon and it amplify normalized equities (The MWC difference between hitting and 13/12(2) is 1.70% with cube at 1 and 1.27% with cube at 4)
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 8
pip: 105 | | 11 point match | pip: 87
score: 9
Blue is Player 2 |
| | XGID=--BCBBC-----b----Bcd-bAd--:0:0:-1:11:8:9:0:11:10 | | Blue to play 11 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 13/12(2) 2/1(2) | eq: +0.927 | | Player:
Opponent: | 74.02% (G:5.57% B:0.05%)
25.98% (G:1.14% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.922...+0.932) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46.4 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 4/3*(2) 2/1(2) | eq: +0.791 (-0.136) | | Player:
Opponent: | 72.80% (G:7.23% B:0.03%)
27.20% (G:1.95% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.784...+0.798) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) | eq: +0.734 (-0.193) | | Player:
Opponent: | 70.71% (G:4.25% B:0.08%)
29.29% (G:1.66% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.725...+0.742) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout1 | 6/5(2) 2/1(2) | eq: +0.724 (-0.203) | | Player:
Opponent: | 70.45% (G:8.01% B:0.02%)
29.55% (G:2.61% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.714...+0.734) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds |
| | | 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 1
score: 8
pip: 105 | | 11 point match | pip: 87
score: 9
Blue is Player 2 |
| | XGID=--BCBBC-----b----Bcd-bAd--:2:-1:-1:11:8:9:0:11:10 | | Blue to play 11 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 13/12(2) 2/1(2) | eq: +0.494 | | Player:
Opponent: | 74.68% (G:6.01% B:0.03%)
25.32% (G:1.06% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.491...+0.497) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53.7 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 4/3*(2) 2/1(2) | eq: +0.468 (-0.025) | | Player:
Opponent: | 73.42% (G:6.99% B:0.02%)
26.58% (G:1.61% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.465...+0.471) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) | eq: +0.422 (-0.072) | | Player:
Opponent: | 71.09% (G:4.28% B:0.06%)
28.91% (G:1.42% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.419...+0.425) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.7 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout1 | 6/5(2) 2/1(2) | eq: +0.413 (-0.080) | | Player:
Opponent: | 70.66% (G:7.12% B:0.03%)
29.34% (G:2.18% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.410...+0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.2 seconds |
| | | 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2