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XGR+ Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 6 September 2012, at 6:46 a.m.

In Response To: Both on the bar cube action (neilkaz)

Neil was slow on the rollout so I thought I'd post this one. I was shown this at the PGH tourney by another player. Knowing the lctp is pretty low, 20%, and the gv are higher than normal, .650, at first glance I still had no desire to cube this. Then they told me Neil doubled OtB and I had to take a second look!

From my pov it appeared that not enough sequences would lead to D/P or if they did, they would be close D/P with not a lot of them blowing the equity swing out of the water. The take was also such a snore it was hard for me to imagine letting the cube hit the felt if I was being cubed here. I have since scratched the surface of the problem by studying it a bit more. (no time to ramble now) I will likely play it out some over the weekend to make sure what I think is happening is happening, esp. trying out the ND sequences to look at our market losers, how frequently they occur, and by how much they lose the market.

White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 146 9 point match pip: 146 score: 4 Blue is Player 1 XGID=aaB--BCAB--AcA---c-ccB--aA:0:0:1:00:4:4:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 61.43% (G:29.71% B:1.41%) 61.86% (G:31.01% B:1.46%) Opponent Winning Chances: 38.57% (G:10.92% B:0.54%) 38.14% (G:11.42% B:0.95%) Cubeless Equities +0.411 +0.955 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.629 (-0.056) ±0.015 (+0.613..+0.644) Double/Take: +0.684 ±0.022 (+0.662..+0.706) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.316) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62813597 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+ Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 6 hours 06 minutes

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Both on the bar cube action
  neilkaz -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 4:41 a.m.
  • Both on the bar cube action
    Peter -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 7:12 a.m.
  • Both on the bar cube action
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 7:40 a.m.
    • Both on the bar cube action
      poseidon -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 9:10 a.m.
      • Both on the bar cube action
        Peter -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 9:48 a.m.
        • Both on the bar cube action
          Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 9:59 a.m.
          • Both on the bar cube action
            Seth -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 1:06 p.m.
  • Both on the bar cube action
    Ken Meng -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 11:47 a.m.
    • Both on the bar cube action
      Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 2:55 p.m.
      • Both on the bar cube action
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 4 September 2012, at 11:54 p.m.
  • XGR+ Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 6 September 2012, at 6:46 a.m.
    • Thoughts OTB etc
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 6 September 2012, at 6:43 p.m.