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The Too Good Trap

Posted By: svilo
Date: Friday, 7 September 2012, at 7:39 a.m.

In Response To: Interesting cube. A question to Xavier (svilo)





White is LAZO

score: 0
pip: 157
7 point match
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is svilo
XGID=aa-B-CB-CAAAe-a--A-c-bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.33% (G:42.95% B:2.83%) 72.69% (G:44.91% B:2.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.67% (G:5.65% B:0.39%) 27.31% (G:6.25% B:0.52%)
Cubeless Equities +0.855 +1.808
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.020
Double/Take:+1.583 (+0.563)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.020)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.5%

Too good positions can be used as a trap. What technically is TG to XG is not so in human play. If the opponent rates to blunder take more often than the CUBEERROR/TAKEBLUNDER ratio, then it is a CUBE!
I believe this has been discused somewhere, because of the figure of Xavier, does someone remember where?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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