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Recube action?

Posted By: Pilgrim
Date: Wednesday, 12 September 2012, at 12:30 p.m.

In Response To: Recube action? (John O'Hagan)

Hello,

I am not sure the double is in question - all 5 and 3s hit plus 11, 12 & 14 (leading to 25 shots in total). I suspect all will be double/pass or maybe even TG next go. This to me says double now.

That leaves 11 numbers which do not hit. Is it safe to assume that Yellow will clear the blot on the 16 spot if he misses? Probably yes. So, for black:

66, 64, 63, 62, 55, 44, 33, 22 - 11 all clear both blots and black probably wins

65, 54, 53 - 6 direct shots of which white will hit 2ish

61, 52, 51, 32, 21 - 10 leaving indirect shot which for convenience we will say yellow hits ~1.5 time

43, 42, 41, 31, 11 - 9 safeties the blots but does not clear them.

So of the remaining 11 rolls when black is not hit, yellow will end up hitting about 10% of the time

So as a rough estimate, from this position yellow hits and win 26/27 times out of 36. It look like black will scrape 9 - 10 wins and that is before any counter play by black following a hit is considered.

Looks like a double/take to me

Pilgrim

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