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The Too Good Trap

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 12 September 2012, at 5:32 p.m.

In Response To: The Too Good Trap (Ian Shaw)

Ian Shaw wrote:

It's only Too Good if you can play it out without making a 0.02 error.

I see this kind of comment a lot and I think it's somewhat misleading. In some positions (and I'm not saying that the position in question is one), you can always cash next turn, as long as you don't screw up your checker play this turn. So then you're only risking an erroneous checker play this turn.

Every roll is a cube decision so I think it's better to think of doubling decisions as a one-turn commitment, not a commitment to play the game out to the end.

Of course if there are many sequences that (theoretically) lose your cash then you are assuming you won't give away too much equity with future errors, but even then I think it's better to think in terms of the next cube decision you'll be faced with, not the entire rest of the game. For example, your opponent might incorrectly drop your double next turn, and that would wipe out any hypothetical checker-play errors you would make if your double were taken.

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