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Recube action?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 13 September 2012, at 4:41 a.m.

In Response To: Recube action? (John O'Hagan)

I thought the redouble would be much clearer, for two reasons:

(1) Hit one ... fan sequences -- a 25*16/1296 = 31% chance -- should be large and gammonish market losers. Here's an evaluation of the position after 51: 22/17*/16 ... fan:

Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	91
Blue	121
Position ID: 5m8DAUBst0EYCA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Alert: wrong double ( -0.16328)! [very bad]

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+1.05351
	0.87061 0.32817 0.01490 - 0.12939 0.02989 0.00090
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.16328
2.	Double, take	+2.01927	+0.85599
3.	Double, pass	+1.00000	-0.16328
Proper cube action:		Too good to redouble, pass (16.0%)

(2) Blue is a clear favorite now, with few shots later, so this looked like a "last roll" type of position for cube action. But perhaps not. Suppose Blue rolls 4-2 and plays 12/6:

White on roll after 42: 12/6

White	74
Blue	121
Position ID: bHcDCAzmbxMCAA Match ID: EQEAAAAAAAAA

White leaves 154/1296 = 11.88% immediate shots. Fewer shots should be very few, but 12% is more than I would have guesstimated.

Messages In This Thread

• Recube action?
  John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 12 September 2012, at 1:45 a.m.
  • Recube action?
    Snua -- Wednesday, 12 September 2012, at 10:40 a.m.
  • Recube action?
    Pilgrim -- Wednesday, 12 September 2012, at 12:30 p.m.
    • Recube action?
      christian munk-christensen -- Wednesday, 12 September 2012, at 3:38 p.m.
  • Recube action?
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 13 September 2012, at 2:30 a.m.
    • RO in above post *NM*
      John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 13 September 2012, at 3:12 a.m.
    • Recube action?
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 September 2012, at 4:41 a.m.