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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 14 November 2007, at 9:13 a.m.

In Response To: Vegas Holding Game Cube (Stick)

Just quickies from both bots. OTB I doubled, Alan took, I immediately rolled 44 and cleared. Being up 38 pips (34) in a race to 99 wasn't near enough, I was doubled out later lol


Match to 11, Blue leads 6 to 4
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
137
115
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4835 (Money: +0.4800)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.7731
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.2269)
3. No double +0.7059 ( -0.0672)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.7421 0.0155 0.0001 - 0.2579 0.0143 0.0054 CL +0.4835 CF +0.7059
[0.0029 0.0018 0.0009 - 0.0029 0.0019 0.0053 CL 0.0062 CF 0.0143]
Player gnubg owns 2-cube:
0.7500 0.0143 0.0002 - 0.2500 0.0149 0.0063 CL +0.9486 CF +0.7731
[0.0025 0.0019 0.0004 - 0.0025 0.0013 0.0054 CL 0.0118 CF 0.0137]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
154 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1042229592 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Cube action equity
RolloutMoney equity:0.485
0.0% 1.4% 74.3% 25.7% 1.4% 0.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.485 ±0.011.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
296 games (equiv. 31958 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
1.Double, take 0.782
2.No double 0.743(-0.039)
3.Double, pass 1.000(+0.218)
Proper cube action:

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