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Find an ace - Rollout

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Wednesday, 14 November 2007, at 9:42 a.m.

In Response To: Find an ace (Ian Shaw)

The score (after 7 games) is: yanwolfy 7, ianshaw 2

Move number 17: ianshaw to play 31

yanwolfy135


2X '1O2O '2X1X3X3X ' '2O

1X2O '2O '2O '2O1O ' '3X

ianshaw164

Position ID: g3WHAyBmZmGARQ Match ID: cIkFAHAAEAAA

• ianshaw moves bar/22 9/8

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.120)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/22 8/7 -0.359
0.4110.1020.003-0.5890.1860.006 -0.266 -0.359
0.0040.0030.001-0.0040.0030.001 0.011 0.028
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1041294316 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.5 (min. 324 games)
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
2 R bar/22 9/8 -0.479 ( -0.120)
0.3830.0900.004-0.6170.1700.006 -0.316 -0.479
0.0040.0030.001-0.0040.0040.001 0.011 0.030
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1041294316 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.5 (min. 324 games)
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
3 R bar/22 2/1* -0.510 ( -0.152)
0.3790.0910.002-0.6210.2020.005 -0.356 -0.510
0.0050.0030.001-0.0050.0040.001 0.014 0.037
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1041294316 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.5 (min. 324 games)
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
4 R bar/21 -0.543 ( -0.184)
0.3700.0870.003-0.6300.1770.005 -0.352 -0.543
0.0040.0030.001-0.0040.0030.001 0.010 0.025
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1041294316 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.5 (min. 324 games)
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
5 2 bar/22 21/20 -0.482 ( -0.123)
0.389 0.111 0.002 - 0.611 0.222 0.009
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Annotation
I didn't fancy leaving 3 blots and 19 shots; it seemd like leading with the chin, so I wimped out with 9/8.

2-ply only had 8/7 ahead by 0.04, but this rollout considers anything else a blunder.

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