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Difficult 3-1 - RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 14 September 2012, at 3:19 a.m.

In Response To: Difficult 3-1 (Daniel Murphy)

Tobias took some time with this, and played 8/5 6/5.

The score (after 13 games) is: BillPhipps 9, TobiasHellwag 10 (match to 11 points, post-Crawford play)

Move number 15: TobiasHellwag to play 31

BillPhipps	126
TobiasHellwag	136
Position ID: sLe1AAjg6w0DEA Match ID: UYllAZAAUAAE

• TobiasHellwag moves 8/5 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/5 6/5	-0.21872
			0.39064 0.12568 0.02223 - 0.60936 0.27548 0.04317 -0.21872 -0.21872 0.00376 0.00998 0.00445 - 0.00376 0.01088 0.00705 0.00753 0.00753
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			487 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695957105 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/10 8/7	-0.25203 ( -0.03331)
			0.37398 0.11757 0.01370 - 0.62602 0.30277 0.03132 -0.25203 -0.25203 0.00336 0.00832 0.00327 - 0.00336 0.01283 0.00547 0.00672 0.00672
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			488 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695957105 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	8/7 6/3*	-0.27814 ( -0.05941)
			0.36093 0.12735 0.02990 - 0.63907 0.26550 0.04841 -0.27814 -0.27814 0.00602 0.01481 0.00965 - 0.00602 0.01751 0.01118 0.01204 0.01204
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			188 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695957105 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

13/10 8/7 gives gives only 4/36 indirect hitting numbers and makes a 3-prime, but fewer ways to continue to improve, including only 7/36 ways each to make the 5 point or 4 point.

8/5 6/5 makes a vital point, a 3.5-prime, and good use of the stacks of spares. But it gives 13/36 hitting numbers. However, after a miss it gives 24/36 ways to cleanly complete the 4-prime. Also after a miss, White can use noncovering numbers a little better -- 3-4 and 3-5 lift the blot and POH, which I suppose is a little better than POH and reblotting the bar point; 2-3 and 3-5 also seem a little stronger after 8/5 6/5.

I think White has very good chances of improving his prime and maintaining it. He already has 4-prime that threatens become 5 or 6 points long. 13/10 8/7 makes the 4-prime, but doesn't give Blue enough of what he needs, which is to catch up fast in quality of prime and distribution in order to continue the prime vs. prime battle. is just too weak to do that as effectively.

Messages In This Thread

• Difficult 3-1
  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 3 September 2012, at 5:16 p.m.
  • Difficult 3-1
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 5 September 2012, at 12:05 a.m.
  • Difficult 3-1
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 13 September 2012, at 10:26 p.m.
  • XGR++ Eval
    Stick -- Friday, 14 September 2012, at 12:42 a.m.
  • Difficult 3-1 - RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 14 September 2012, at 3:19 a.m.