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BGonline.org Forums
That don't impress me much
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: That don't impress me much (svilo)
Date: Friday, 14 September 2012, at 4:19 a.m.
I'd like (1) White's board to lose a point, (2) to hit White if one checker runs, (3) to win the race.
13/9 leaves blotting numbers and others that force a bearin from the 7 while leaving 3 checkers on the 9 point.
I'm not playing 7/6(2) because I want White to waste 4s and I'd still have 3 checkers to bring in and a slow board, not good if White rolls a couple of big numbers.
That leaves 13/10 2/1 or 9/8(2) 2/1(2) or 9/8(2) 13/12 2/1 -- 13/11 2/1(2) and 13/12 2/1(3) look like a waste of a pip or two for little more outfield coverage. 2/1(2) alone also looks more wasteful than 2/1, so unless there's a reason to stay on the 13 point, 9/8(2) 13/12 2/1 should be better than 9/8(2) 2/1(2).
1) If White has 5s out, then 18/36 numbers don't crash (all 5s and 1-1 2-1 6-1 6-2). If White has 6s out then 14/36 numbers don't crash (all 6s and 1-1 2-1). This argues for 9/8(2) and 2 more aces.
(2) This probably isn't too important but I'll get a few more direct shots from the 13 or 12 point, which argues for not playing 13/10.
(3) I still have 5 checkers to bring in. Allowing 6s out instead of 5s gives White a good 6-6 6-4 6-3 6-2 6-1 (average 10.22 pips per roll) instead of 5-5 5-4 5-3 5-2 5-1 (average 8.88 pips per roll). That argues for not playing 9/8(2). If I don't play 9/8(2) then I think I should play 13/12 so 5-5 doesn't hit and bring all three checker out for a winnable race. Whether or not I play 9/8(2) I think I should play 13/12, giving up a direct shot only on 6-3 or 5-4, but coming a crossover closer to bearing in and off. I think I should also play 13/12 to unblock my own 5-5. 9/8(2) also should allow me to bear in a little faster.
All in all, I'd choose 13/12 9/8(2) 2/1, thinking the several points in its favor outweigh giving White slightly larger escaping numbers.
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