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RO

Posted By: Svilo
Date: Friday, 14 September 2012, at 12:06 p.m.

In Response To: That don't impress me much (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 98
9 point match
pip: 85
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CcCBBB-B---A-----b--cdc-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:9:3
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout19/8(2) 2/1(2)eq: +0.816
Player:
Opponent:		87.66% (G:9.88% B:0.15%)
12.34% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.813...+0.818) - [53.4%]
Duration: 3 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout113/10 2/1eq: +0.816 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		88.03% (G:8.94% B:0.14%)
11.97% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.813...+0.818) - [46.6%]
Duration: 3 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout113/11 2/1(2)eq: +0.809 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		87.78% (G:8.97% B:0.13%)
12.22% (G:0.21% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.806...+0.812) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
4.Rollout113/12 9/8(2) 2/1eq: +0.806 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		87.75% (G:8.66% B:0.13%)
12.25% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.803...+0.808) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
5.Rollout17/6 7/5 2/1eq: +0.795 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		86.50% (G:10.80% B:0.21%)
13.50% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.793...+0.798) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

You can't scare her by what she likes best (moving the pieces).

All the fisrt 5 candidate plays contain a 2/1 ingredient. Whether killing 5s or killing 6s.

Killing her 5s exit crunches her more often, but allows her to play BOTH outside and inside. This is essentialy a racing game with a little salt of blocking and holding. Moving inside improves the bearoff position. Crunching is thus a mixed blessing. Says she: Making me crunch? OK. That don't impress me much.

If I kill her 6s, I will only allow her to play the 5s. In a race, losing the possibility to play the largest number is quite a suffocation. 4s and 3s still crunch her. Additionally, 51 gives a double shot it she dares exit. Since it is already essentially a racing game - this is the safest play. Best at DMP too.

OtB I realized her exit numbers are not always winners and I suspected I might have more gammons if she exits next checker at the wrong time.

I did not consider that staying back is beneficial. After 9/8(2) the further back I stay the more shots I get. I played 9/8(2) 13/11 for a 0.04 error.

Topping the 6 and 5 points gives her fours to play and loses more often, but this is a typical way to shoot at a runner and get more gammons. This time the gammons are probably not enough in a GG.

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