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Daily Quiz 6-19 ROLLOUT AND VARIATIONS

Posted By: Pilgrim
Date: Friday, 14 September 2012, at 4:34 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 6-19 (Daily Quiz)

My answer was an epic fail:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
11 point match
pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=b--ABBBCB---------bcbdbBA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.527% (G:16.523% B:0.705%) 58.769% (G:16.323% B:0.829%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.473% (G:13.817% B:0.932%) 41.231% (G:13.982% B:1.662%)
Cubeless Equities +0.1964 +0.3960
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.4429±0.0108 (+0.4321..+0.4538)
Redouble/Take:+0.1873 (-0.2556)±0.0172 (+0.1701..+0.2045)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.5571)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

6 variations, all of which demonstrate I was wrong under most circumstances:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
11 point match
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=b-ABBBCB----------bcbdbBA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 48.896% (G:15.442% B:0.557%) 48.983% (G:15.550% B:0.587%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51.104% (G:15.085% B:0.860%) 51.017% (G:14.490% B:1.451%)
Cubeless Equities -0.0215 -0.0299
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.1660±0.0094 (+0.1566..+0.1753)
Redouble/Take:-0.3730 (-0.5390)±0.0139 (-0.3869..-0.3591)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.8340)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
11 point match
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=b---ABBCBB--------bcbdbBA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.345% (G:17.379% B:0.776%) 64.862% (G:17.461% B:0.943%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.655% (G:13.553% B:1.066%) 35.138% (G:13.503% B:1.621%)
Cubeless Equities +0.3238 +0.6789
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.6221±0.0116 (+0.6104..+0.6337)
Redouble/Take:+0.5233 (-0.0988)±0.0179 (+0.5054..+0.5412)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3779)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
11 point match
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=b---BBCCB---------bcbdbBA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.097% (G:16.657% B:0.743%) 59.561% (G:16.827% B:0.779%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.903% (G:14.328% B:0.978%) 40.439% (G:14.325% B:2.045%)
Cubeless Equities +0.2038 +0.4269
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.4667±0.0108 (+0.4558..+0.4775)
Redouble/Take:+0.2239 (-0.2427)±0.0169 (+0.2071..+0.2408)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.5333)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
11 point match
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=b----BCCBB--------bcbdbBA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.368% (G:16.204% B:0.769%) 62.051% (G:16.363% B:0.851%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.632% (G:15.084% B:1.116%) 37.949% (G:15.993% B:1.978%)
Cubeless Equities +0.2354 +0.4880
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.5226±0.0123 (+0.5103..+0.5349)
Redouble/Take:+0.3463 (-0.1763)±0.0176 (+0.3287..+0.3640)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.4774)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
11 point match
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=b--ABBBCB---------bcbdbC--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.981% (G:17.217% B:0.664%) 61.441% (G:17.323% B:0.681%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.019% (G:11.757% B:0.605%) 38.559% (G:11.900% B:1.376%)
Cubeless Equities +0.2773 +0.5679
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.5168±0.0085 (+0.5083..+0.5253)
Redouble/Take:+0.3472 (-0.1696)±0.0150 (+0.3323..+0.3622)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.4832)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
11 point match
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=b---ABBCBB--------bcbdbC--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.602% (G:17.350% B:0.718%) 67.365% (G:17.376% B:0.801%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.398% (G:10.675% B:0.674%) 32.635% (G:10.934% B:0.809%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4022 +0.8377
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.6870±0.0104 (+0.6765..+0.6974)
Redouble/Take:+0.6693 (-0.0176)±0.0154 (+0.6540..+0.6847)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3130)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:96.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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