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almost like a reference position

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 14 September 2012, at 5:21 p.m.

In Response To: almost like a reference position (Robert Andersson)

I'll give this a shot since nobody else has.

Crucially, it's DMP. 8/4* will lose more gammons, but you don't care about that. Speaking very loosely, loose hits tend to win more games and lose more gammons. This decision looks tougher at a normal match score or for money.

You have nine checkers in the zone, and although White has a three-point board, it's gappy and not excessively dangerous. Thus you have decent chances of carrying out a successful attack. I think that if you vary the position by strengthening White's board, you'll find that the value of the loose hit diminishes because the return shots hurt more.

Also, the alternative play of bar/20 gives White a large number of hitting rolls (White will not be afraid to hit loose). If you had a running play available that gave you better chances of successfully escaping your back checker, then it would be a stronger candidate, and Pottle's law might apply.

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