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Unlimited match, no Jacoby. White has 1 checker off. Blue on roll.
When Blue rolls one of the 20 numbers that hits, he becomes a 96% favorite (or better, given White’s understocked 1pt). When Blue fails to roll a 1 or 2, thereby missing the shot, he will average 11.25 pips. Assuming he runs both of his checkers into the outfield, it will be very unusual for him to lose a gammon. He could stay back, but White’s only blotting number is 21, against which White has 11 22 and 32 to put a Blue straggler on the bar. Since the game will be decided (for the most part) on the next roll, this looks like a one-roll proposition. If Blue misses this shot, White will likely double, and Blue should pass. So Blue may as well double now, while he has positive equity. Mike | ||||||||||
