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Problem: Cube action?

Posted By: benf
Date: Saturday, 15 September 2012, at 6:46 p.m.

In Response To: Problem: Cube action? (Daniel Murphy)

If you do the math this should be close to an optional double (meaning not a very big of a double) but in practice should always be doubled because your opponent might make a mistake and pass or beaver. I am using 95% wins for blue after a hit which is going to be 1-2% low(which is why it a small double.) Here is the math: Equities are in points and are for blue.

After ND After D/T After D/Beaver
16/36 -16 16/36 -32 16/36 -64
20/36 +20 19/36 +38 19/36 +76
. 1/36 -2 (white wins after a hit) 1/36 -4
total: +4 total: +4 total: +8

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