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bringing them home - Rollout

Posted By: smcrtorchs
Date: Sunday, 16 September 2012, at 8:17 p.m.

In Response To: bringing them home (smcrtorchs)

OTB I did not really found it easy to calculate which play was safer over the next few rolls.

Advantages of 6/5* 6/2 :

1) The advantage blue gains if white fans. This is quite good, as an average senario Blue will bring a man close to his home and lift the blot inside. If white misses from the bar then Blue will have a good chance to either make an anchor just out of his home or bring one man to safety and leave only one more blot with the other checker.

2) If blue hits now all white's sixes next turn except boxes will be worse, as if blue does not hit white leaves only one blot with 61,62 and no blots with 64 and 65.

Disadvantages of 6/5 6/2: If white enters at 3 this will be a big problem.

Advantages of 6/1 1) It leaves 2 less single shots 2) More fives next turn can play safe in comparison with 6/5* 6/2

The question here actually is which play is safer at the long term. Here all considered 6/1 is better.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 29, boo 20

Move number 5: boo to play 41

gnubg	114
boo	62
Position ID: tm3ABgLvMwMMAA Match ID: UQkGANABoAAA

• boo moves 6/5* 6/2

Alert: bad move ( -0.053)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	6/1	-0.512
			0.310 0.028 0.000 - 0.690 0.239 0.014 -0.606 -0.512 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2593 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695570691 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	6/5* 6/2	-0.565 ( -0.053)
			0.283 0.056 0.000 - 0.717 0.263 0.015 -0.656 -0.565 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 695570691 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/5*/1	-0.470 ( +0.043)
			0.295 0.060 0.000 - 0.705 0.216 0.000
	4	2	6/2 4/3	-0.550 ( -0.038)
			0.280 0.020 0.000 - 0.720 0.222 0.000
	5	0	14/13 14/10	-0.744 ( -0.231)
			0.216 0.040 0.000 - 0.784 0.281 0.007

I give 1 more position below to compare.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 29, boo 20

Move number 4: boo to play 41

gnubg	112
boo	62
Position ID: tm3AAwLvMwMMAA Match ID: UQkGANABoAAA

• boo moves 6/5* 6/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	6/5* 6/2	-0.460
			0.321 0.043 0.000 - 0.679 0.242 0.013 -0.570 -0.460 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696246220 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	6/1	-0.488 ( -0.028)
			0.317 0.014 0.000 - 0.683 0.224 0.011 -0.587 -0.488 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696246220 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	6/5*/1	-0.446 ( +0.014)
			0.295 0.066 0.000 - 0.705 0.197 0.000
	4	2	14/13 14/10	-0.645 ( -0.185)
			0.257 0.023 0.000 - 0.743 0.258 0.007
	5	2	14/9	-0.691 ( -0.231)
			0.246 0.021 0.000 - 0.754 0.277 0.008

Now if white fans blue will break his anchor next turn leaving 3 less shots than before. Also 33 will works for blue so much nicer. White will not leave a shot next turn, but the hit looks like the safer play. The equity of the third move 6/5* 5/1 after a 1296 games rollout is -0.496. There is a weird bug on gnu for macs that does not allow me to include it.

Messages In This Thread

• bringing them home
  smcrtorchs -- Friday, 14 September 2012, at 8:25 p.m.
  • bringing them home
    Stick -- Friday, 14 September 2012, at 8:34 p.m.
  • bringing them home - Rollout
    smcrtorchs -- Sunday, 16 September 2012, at 8:17 p.m.