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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 6-22
Posted By: Pilgrim In Response To: Daily Quiz 6-22 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Tuesday, 18 September 2012, at 11:38 a.m.
Hello,
Answer - Double/Take
As always the first question is what is the take point. Here it is the match equity of white at 4-away, 2-away = 33%.
If blue cubes and white takes, the match is on the line so there is no need to worry about gammons and recube vig if blue doubles.
Seems to me the numbers are as follows:
- 61 - hit and cover - 2 wins out of 36
- 65, 64, 63, 62, 51, 42, 33, 22 - hit and clear blot on 6 spot - 14 numbers which for convenience we will say blue wins 13 due to the 61 return joker and clearing the final checker
- 66 - Hit and leave blot on 6 point - 1 hitting number of which we will say Blue wins ~0.75 due to the return hit.
- 55,44 - Blue goes racing - 2 numbers of which Blue wins ~1.25.
- 54, 53, 52, 43, 41, 32, 31, 21, 11 - 17 numbers of which white escapes and wins ~20/36 and leaves shots 16 times. Of these 17 numbers, we will say blue wins 1/6 or about 3 games.
To me it seems blue wins 20 out of 36 - so it seems like a marginal double for blue and a take for white.
Pilgrim
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