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Find an ace - Rollout

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Wednesday, 14 November 2007, at 5:33 p.m.

In Response To: Find an ace - Rollout (Daniel Murphy)

If we roll this out 2-ply, what do think the biggest or most interesting difference will be between the 0- and 2-ply rollouts?

Now you're asking really tough questions! A rollout on a higher ply should improve the equity of the side with the tougher decisions. White's gameplan looks clear; extract the back man, fill in the 18 and 20 points, get home without being hit. Blue's game looks more complicated; the objectives are similar, but is starting position is worse, plus he also needs to contain the back man (or hit another). This leads us to conclude that Blue's 2-ply rollout equity is better than 0-ply.

We can use similar reasoning for Blue's choice of play. My 9/8 play and b/21 should lead to simpler games. 8/7 will end up with more men back. The choices will be more tricky, and the game will be longer, so a poorer player has more opportunity to make errors. So 8/7 may be even further ahead than suggested by the 0-ply rollout, just as the 0-ply rollout had it further ahead than the 2-ply evaluation.

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