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Rollouts

Posted By: Snua
Date: Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 3:49 p.m.

In Response To: Three cube decisions from the same game (Snua)

1.




White is eXtremeGammon

score: 700
pip: 206
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 146
score: 444

Blue is Simon Barget
XGID=abb-BBEa--A-cB--A--bbb-B--:1:1:1:00:444:700:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.77% (G:31.23% B:6.08%) 56.65% (G:31.22% B:5.55%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.23% (G:8.11% B:0.49%) 43.36% (G:7.84% B:0.55%)
Cubeless Equities +0.422 +0.834
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.630±0.035 (+0.595..+0.665)
Redouble/Take:+0.443 (-0.187)±0.049 (+0.393..+0.492)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.370)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25.2%
Rollout details
344 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18624128
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
White is eXtremeGammon

score: 700
pip: 213
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 444

Blue is Simon Barget
XGID=bbb-BBEA-AA-c---A--bbb-B--:1:1:1:00:444:700:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.41% (G:32.82% B:7.54%) 57.25% (G:32.48% B:7.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.59% (G:5.74% B:0.34%) 42.75% (G:5.68% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities +0.491 +0.961
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.697±0.020 (+0.677..+0.717)
Redouble/Take:+0.575 (-0.123)±0.026 (+0.549..+0.600)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.303)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.4%
Rollout details
1332 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30010947
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 58 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

3.
White is eXtremeGammon

score: 700
pip: 210
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 129
score: 444

Blue is Simon Barget
XGID=abbaBBEAAA--c---A-Abbb-A--:1:1:1:00:444:700:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.67% (G:32.00% B:7.88%) 56.24% (G:31.74% B:7.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.33% (G:5.42% B:0.28%) 43.76% (G:5.52% B:0.29%)
Cubeless Equities +0.475 +0.922
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.676±0.020 (+0.656..+0.696)
Redouble/Take:+0.511 (-0.165)±0.028 (+0.483..+0.539)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.324)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25.2%
Rollout details
1116 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88057514
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 59 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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