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win probability for a PR difference and match length

Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 6:04 p.m.

In Response To: win probability for a PR difference and match length (Chuck Bower)

Sorry if I wasnt clear.

1. Yes the relationship is approximately linear, as expressed in your equation.

2. On gridgammon for instance, it correlates very well for Elo ratings from 1500 to 2000+. This corresponds roughly to a pr range from 2 to 17. Even outside of that range, say to prs of 20 it will still yield reasonables estimates, for the purposes of calculating of odds, in my view.

3. On other Backgammon servers, eg FIBS, providing they are not prone to significanr ongoing inflation/deflation, there is generally a simple arithmetical relationship between ELO ratings, eg, about a year ago FIBS rating of x approximately corresponded to Gridgammon rating of (x - 125).

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