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win probability for a PR difference and match length

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Friday, 21 September 2012, at 2:33 a.m.

In Response To: win probability for a PR difference and match length (Joe Russell)

Joe: I am not sure I understand what you are saying. Are you saying if A is 5 to 1 to beat B and B is 2 to 1 to beat C, then A's chances are (5*2= 10) to 1 to beat C. I would have though C's chances would ~1/6*1/3

Joe is right, the misunderstanding comes into play by misinterpreting x-to-1 as a probability of 1/x, when it is actually 1/(x+1).

Messages In This Thread

• win probability for a PR difference and match length
  niuniuch -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 11:12 a.m.
  • win probability for a PR difference and match length
    Robert Andersson -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 12:41 p.m.
    • win probability for a PR difference and match length
      niuniuch -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 12:47 p.m.
      • win probability for a PR difference and match length
        Robert Andersson -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 1:07 p.m.
  • win probability for a PR difference and match length
    Rico -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 12:59 p.m.
    • win probability for a PR difference and match length
      Robert Andersson -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 1:13 p.m.
      • win probability for a PR difference and match length
        Rico -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 1:36 p.m.
      • win probability for a PR difference and match length
        niuniuch -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 1:54 p.m.
        • win probability for a PR difference and match length
          Rico -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 2:16 p.m.
  • win probability for a PR difference and match length
    rew -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 2:12 p.m.
  • win probability for a PR difference and match length
    Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 2:14 p.m.
    • win probability for a PR difference and match length
      niuniuch -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 2:22 p.m.
    • win probability for a PR difference and match length
      Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 5:14 p.m.
      • win probability for a PR difference and match length
        Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 6:04 p.m.
      • win probability for a PR difference and match length
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 7:57 p.m.
        • win probability for a PR difference and match length
          Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 10:02 p.m.
          • win probability for a PR difference and match length
            Joe Russell -- Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 11:59 p.m.
            • win probability for a PR difference and match length
              Jason Lee -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 2:33 a.m.
              • win probability for a PR difference and match length
                Rick Janowski -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 3:58 a.m.
                • win probability for a PR difference and match length
                  Joe Russell -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 11:04 a.m.
                • win probability for a PR difference and match length
                  Leonardo Jerkovic -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 12:57 p.m.
              • win probability for a PR difference and match length
                Carlo Melzi -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 9:01 a.m.
      • win probability for a PR difference and match length
        Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 5:25 a.m.
        • correction
          Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 5:42 a.m.
    • win probability for a PR difference and match length
      Henrik Bukkjaer -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 7:41 a.m.