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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 15 November 2007, at 11:14 a.m.

In Response To: Vegas Cube Action (Stick)

Nasty because OTB I took. I do this from time to time, seem to 'talk myself into taking'. First thing I did was count the race, 100 to 88, not on roll, certainly not hopeless though. Even though I have more (and longer) crossovers I still afforded myself modest race chances. After that I counted all the immediate blot numbers knowing that there would be some repeaters and that all my hits were winners. My blot in the outfield providing 10 pips will mean any immediate hit that comes in and doesn't hop out will kill, in all likelyhood, at most 4 pips, meaning I have an easy RD/P. Anyway, as we can see, if I could put the kibosh on his gammons won I could eek out a take, as it is when things go well for him the G losses push it way over to pass land.

I took, he rolled something small, I hopped my checker on the deuce point, he rolled 61 and was forced to leave a shot. I hit and played on for a G. Didn't get the G but 4 pts was nice enough from this position apparently.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, user 0 (match to 15 points)

gnubg88


1O1O2X3X2X2X '6X ' ' ' '

2O2O2O2O2O2O ' ' ' '1O '

user100

Position ID: 27ZBACjsNj8AAA Match ID: AYHxAQAAAAAA

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.6575 (Money: +0.6525)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.2378 ( +0.2378)
3. No double +0.8885 ( -0.1115)
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass
Rollout details:
Player gnubg owns 2-cube:
0.7762 0.1174 0.0031 - 0.2238 0.0204 0.0000 CL +0.6575 CF +0.8885
[0.0013 0.0013 0.0002 - 0.0013 0.0010 0.0003 CL 0.0031 CF 0.0040]
Player user owns 4-cube:
0.7849 0.1139 0.0021 - 0.2151 0.0192 0.0001 CL +1.3706 CF +1.2378
[0.0017 0.0019 0.0003 - 0.0017 0.0010 0.0001 CL 0.0074 CF 0.0101]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
783 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1042029765 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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