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Double Hit -Rollout

Posted By: smcrtorchs
Date: Saturday, 22 September 2012, at 11:55 p.m.

In Response To: ????le Hit (smcrtorchs)

Well I had to play this out a few times in order to understand it. What I write below is what I learned during those games. I do hope I got it right.

It does appear that blue is planning to hit loose on the 3 point later on anyways. Many wins come from making the 3 pt while white still has 2 checkers on the 2. If Blue does not hit now, it is not clear when he will have again the choice to do it. Therefore there is a clear benefit from the double hit. The risk of hitting now appears to be just a few more gammons, but not enough to compensate for the extra games won by following immediately the most likely winning game plan. Since making the 3 pt includes also covering it, it should be noted that the chances that Blue will cover the 3 pt after the double hit appear to be at average as good with the chances that blue would get in the future. The number of covers is also a deciding factor. The equity won from the double hit is not that much exactly because blue might not cover next turn, or he might be forced to cover with a 5 which is far from optimal.

Money game

Move number 4: boo to play 31

gnubg	125
boo	135
Position ID: bNsDCBSxnYkBGA Match ID: UYkFAHAAAAAA

• boo moves 10/9*/6

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.041)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	10/9* 6/3*	+0.018
			0.466 0.154 0.007 - 0.534 0.241 0.020 -0.169 +0.018 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5185 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696013906 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	10/9*/6	-0.022 ( -0.041)
			0.436 0.144 0.006 - 0.564 0.206 0.011 -0.194 -0.022 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696013906 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	6/3*/2*	-0.074 ( -0.093)
			0.432 0.167 0.007 - 0.568 0.260 0.022 -0.245 -0.074 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696013906 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/9*	-0.101 ( -0.119)
			0.433 0.138 0.006 - 0.567 0.259 0.024 -0.274 -0.101 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696013906 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	10/6	-0.204 ( -0.222)
			0.368 0.114 0.004 - 0.632 0.175 0.007

Comparison position.

Money game

Move number 4: boo to play 31

gnubg	123
boo	137
Position ID: bNsDAhSxnaEBGA Match ID: UYkFAHAAAAAA

• boo moves 12/11*/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	12/11*/8	+0.066
			0.463 0.145 0.006 - 0.537 0.189 0.011 -0.121 +0.066 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696247749 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/10 12/11*	+0.045 ( -0.021)
			0.472 0.150 0.005 - 0.528 0.226 0.023 -0.150 +0.045 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.006 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696247749 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	12/11* 6/3*	+0.031 ( -0.035)
			0.470 0.152 0.006 - 0.530 0.250 0.021 -0.173 +0.031 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696247749 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	3	6/3*/2*	-0.155 ( -0.221)
			0.414 0.167 0.007 - 0.586 0.281 0.025
	5	2	12/8	-0.121 ( -0.187)
			0.395 0.122 0.004 - 0.605 0.165 0.006

Messages In This Thread

• ????le Hit
  smcrtorchs -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 10:47 a.m.
  • ????le Hit
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 September 2012, at 11:34 p.m.
  • ????le Hit
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 22 September 2012, at 3:00 p.m.
  • Double Hit -Rollout
    smcrtorchs -- Saturday, 22 September 2012, at 11:55 p.m.