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BQ: Make the 4 or the 20 point?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 25 September 2012, at 1:35 a.m.

In Response To: BQ: Make the 4 or the 20 point? (leobueno)

Put the squeeze on. Figure out what White wants to do, and stop it.

What does White want to do? Advance his anchor, or split to the 23 point, or split to the 21 point, or run a checker ... and counterprime Blue.

Blue can't stop a split to the 23 point or a run. 8/4(2) is surely better if White rolls 3-1 3-2 3-4 3-5 or 3-3. But even after these numbers (except the joker 3-3), White has the clearly inferior defense.

On the other hand, White has a fair chance of equalizing offensive positions by priming if Blue makes the four point, and no chance if Blue grabs the 20 point. If Blue plays 8/4(2), White will be glad to roll 1-1 3-1 4-1 2-2 4-2 5-2 or 3-4. With these numbers White can make an additional or better point in front of Blue's anchor, and maintains chances for further improving his offense after that. But if Blue plays 22/20(2) 13/11), all those numbers are offensively impotent except 2-2 (which plays a lot better if Blue is still on the 22 point). The best White can do with 3-1 or 4-1 is split. The rest are nearly useless.

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