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Separate XG Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 2 October 2012, at 8:15 a.m.

In Response To: Don't bother--Longer RO (eXtreme Gammon)

I prefer to do it this way instead of rolling out the plays for ND/D. Why? I don't know...because then I know what is clearly going on. Your rollout has 18, 6 better than 18, 7 by .025 with a fair amount of variance left but reports it with a confidence of 100%. My rollouts show the plays are in a virtual tie with the equity after D/T coming in at +.684 and +.683 respectively.

White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 109 9 point match pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 2 XGID=--BBBcCAAB-a---bcbAbb-A---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 66.36% (G:19.06% B:1.25%) 66.68% (G:20.00% B:1.41%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.64% (G:10.60% B:0.33%) 33.32% (G:11.08% B:0.40%) Cubeless Equities +0.421 +0.878 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.641 (-0.043) ±0.004 (+0.637..+0.644) Double/Take: +0.684 ±0.005 (+0.678..+0.689) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.316) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 6122173 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 9 hours 54 minutes

White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 109 9 point match pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 2 XGID=--BBBcBBBA-a---bcbAbb-A---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 67.44% (G:16.60% B:0.67%) 67.55% (G:16.74% B:0.72%) Opponent Winning Chances: 32.56% (G:10.05% B:0.34%) 32.45% (G:9.52% B:0.29%) Cubeless Equities +0.417 +0.864 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.672 (-0.011) ±0.003 (+0.669..+0.676) Double/Take: +0.683 ±0.005 (+0.678..+0.688) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.317) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 6122173 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 9 hours 40 minutes

Messages In This Thread

• Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
  Phil Simborg -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 1:47 p.m.
  • Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
    Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 2:21 p.m.
  • Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 2:42 p.m.
  • Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
    ah_clem -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 3:06 p.m.
  • Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
    Sam Pottle -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 3:57 p.m.
  • Don't bother--Here is the answer and MCG analysis
    Phil Simborg -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 4:32 p.m.
    • Don't bother--Longer RO
      eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 5:03 p.m.
      • Don't bother--Longer RO
        Stick -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 7:16 p.m.
        • Don't bother--Longer RO
          eXtreme Gammon -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 6:13 p.m.
          • Don't bother--Longer RO
            Stick -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 6:36 p.m.
          • Don't bother--Longer RO
            Neil Robins -- Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 7:03 a.m.
          • Don't bother--Longer RO - Gnubg RO
            Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 1 October 2012, at 4:21 a.m.
          • Separate XG Rollouts
            Stick -- Tuesday, 2 October 2012, at 8:15 a.m.
    • Don't bother--Here is the answer and MCG analysis
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 11:35 p.m.