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Rollout / Variants

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Wednesday, 3 October 2012, at 5:28 p.m.

In Response To: I'm still botching holding-game cubes (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 105
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABCabBBBB--------Abbbcba-:1:1:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70,83% (G:6,22% B:0,11%) 71,03% (G:5,92% B:0,11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29,17% (G:4,04% B:0,09%) 28,97% (G:3,89% B:0,09%)
Cubeless Equities +0,439 +0,882
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,767±0,006 (+0,760..+0,773)
Redouble/Take:+0,731 (-0,036)±0,010 (+0,721..+0,740)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,233)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11,8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 5 minutes 51 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 105
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 90
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBabBBBB--------Abbbcba-:1:1:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74,49% (G:7,96% B:0,12%) 74,84% (G:7,32% B:0,10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25,51% (G:3,25% B:0,08%) 25,16% (G:2,82% B:0,08%)
Cubeless Equities +0,537 +1,084
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,825 (-0,122)±0,005 (+0,820..+0,831)
Redouble/Take:+0,947±0,009 (+0,937..+0,956)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,053)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 6 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 105
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 87
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABCabBBBB---A-----bbbcba-:1:1:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75,28% (G:6,35% B:0,08%) 75,70% (G:5,94% B:0,06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24,72% (G:2,95% B:0,06%) 24,30% (G:2,73% B:0,06%)
Cubeless Equities +0,540 +1,092
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,878 (-0,094)±0,006 (+0,872..+0,883)
Redouble/Take:+0,971±0,009 (+0,962..+0,980)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,029)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

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