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a 4-2 at DMP to play.

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 4 October 2012, at 1:28 a.m.

In Response To: a 4-2 at DMP to play. (Casper van der Tak)

What Casper said and

Third, split as you are, your chances of hitting shot aren't great. You have to weigh how often and how good your game gets when you hit that shot against how bad your game gets when your split defense or self-blocked position gets jokered out of the game.

Now, I wrote that, thinking that you kept your checkers split. Did you actually play 24/22 7/3? That does avoid getting blitzed, but it can't be good, first because by blocking your own 6s and 5s you're giving up a lot of your racing chances and second, because you get very few shot numbers. Of course anchoring on the 20 point gives you no chance of getting a shot soon, but you maximize your racing chances and as Casper noted you always have some shot vig holding the golden anchor against a midpoint.

It might be helpful to look just at White's next roll after Blue's play as an indication of the tradeoff your play makes between shot-getting, safety and (partially) racing chances (you won't race well from the bar, or when blocked). Note that some numbers I've counted as POH do leave a few indirects that I haven't counted as leaving shots, but they don't amount to much shot vig.

	24/20 22/20	22/20 9/5	22/18 9/7	24/22 7/3	9/3
POH	0	10	11	0	9
Safe	36	20	23	32	23
Shot	0	6	2	4*	4

^*Indirect shots after 21 13/10 and 43 13/9 13/10, a 16/1296 = 1.2% of hitting (and you have a blot in your own board)

From the table it's pretty clear that remaining split or anchoring on the 22 point don't do much to improve your chances of getting a shot, but do seriously hurt your racing chances.

As long as you're down in the race, you should consider playing dangerously for a shot, but the race may be your best chance. You need to consider how candidate moves affect your shot-getting and racing chances.

---

Somewhat contrary to your response to Tim, over the board your analysis need not be deep and detailed, and you need not always count shots or good and bad numbers. In the two positions you posted, you're down 130-138 and 126-133 after your play -- not much difference. But in one diagram your Opponent has 2 checkers out of play and holds only 2 disconnected points in front of you plus the midpoint. This should generate a lot of shots for you and the chance of being blitzed or primed (reducing your racing chance) is very small. In the other diagram your Opponent's position is quite robust -- 4 points in front of you (these are both safe landing points and two-thirds of a six-prime) plus the midpoint with builders on three points. You should not expect that hanging back will generate many shots, and remaining split is quite dangerous.

Messages In This Thread

• a 4-2 at DMP to play.
  Robert Andersson -- Wednesday, 3 October 2012, at 10:58 p.m.
  • a 4-2 at DMP to play.
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 3 October 2012, at 11:06 p.m.
    • a 4-2 at DMP to play.
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 4 October 2012, at 1:28 a.m.
      • a 4-2 at DMP to play.
        Robert Andersson -- Thursday, 4 October 2012, at 5:00 a.m.
        • a 4-2 at DMP to play.
          Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 4 October 2012, at 10:31 a.m.
  • a 4-2 at DMP to play.
    Stick -- Wednesday, 3 October 2012, at 11:43 p.m.
  • Link to other problem
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 October 2012, at 12:39 a.m.
    • Link to other problem
      Robert Andersson -- Thursday, 4 October 2012, at 1:13 a.m.