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Money cube. ROLLOUT

Posted By: Keene
Date: Friday, 16 November 2007, at 5:13 p.m.

In Response To: Money cube. (Keene)

So, I doubled - thinking about market losers etc, and promptly got beavered! I had counted my market losers as 11,22,33,55,54,53,52,51,56. Which I thought was enough to make it worthwhile.

Fortunately for me, a set of 5s from the roof secured me a gammon. I was very surprised how far from a double this is.

The score (after 0 games) is: kilted 0, BigBeat 0

Move number 9: kilted on roll, cube decision?

kilted	148
BigBeat	167
Position ID: WFvwACaYt5EBUA Match ID: MAEAAAAAAAAA

• kilted doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.202)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.269
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.371
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.629
3.	Double, take	+0.170	-0.202
Proper cube action:		No double, take (24.3%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.566 0.237 0.015 - 0.434 0.109 0.006 +0.269 +0.371 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.006 0.015 Player BigBeat owns 2-cube 0.568 0.237 0.015 - 0.432 0.111 0.006 +0.540 +0.170 Standard error 0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.016 0.026
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1041724260 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 1.96 (min. 648 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Money cube.
  Keene -- Thursday, 15 November 2007, at 7:02 a.m.
  • Money cube.
    pontiac -- Thursday, 15 November 2007, at 9:01 a.m.
  • Money cube.
    misja -- Thursday, 15 November 2007, at 9:17 a.m.
  • Money cube.
    Philippe Michel -- Thursday, 15 November 2007, at 10:13 a.m.
  • Money cube.
    Stick -- Thursday, 15 November 2007, at 11:23 a.m.
  • Money cube.
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 15 November 2007, at 4:33 p.m.
  • Money cube. ROLLOUT
    Keene -- Friday, 16 November 2007, at 5:13 p.m.
    • Money cube. ROLLOUT
      neilkaz -- Friday, 16 November 2007, at 5:48 p.m.
    • Money cube. ROLLOUT
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 16 November 2007, at 6:51 p.m.
      • Money cube. ROLLOUT
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 16 November 2007, at 6:55 p.m.
        • Money cube. ROLLOUT
          Keene -- Friday, 16 November 2007, at 8:10 p.m.