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BGonline.org Forums
DQ: Coming in against a backgame
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: DQ: Coming in against a backgame (leobueno)
Date: Saturday, 6 October 2012, at 7:01 p.m.
Your play was probably 8/2, since that does indeed seem like the "natural" play, clearing points in order and not blotting. Take a guess as to how many rolls leave a blot next turn ... I'd guess: a lot. Let's count: 65 (two blots) 63 61 53 51 43 41 32. Sixteen numbers. If you lose the 4 point spare, more numbers. How many numbers clear the 8 point? Only ten.
That doesn't seem very good, and it can't hurt to look at other plays. You could clear the 6 point with 6/2 6/4. Clearing that point is a plus, and the play is almost completely safe for one roll. But not so safe afterwards. A likely sequence is that you clear one checker from the 8 point next roll, after which 60% of your numbers blot on the following turn. Another good thing about 6/2 6/4 is that it looks like (without counting) that you'll never leave two blots on a turn, since you can play 1s 2s and 3s inside, 6s and 4s outside, and 5s don't play.
6/2 6/4 does not look like a bad play, and it looks better than 8/2. But since White has no board at the moment, I think I'd go with a third play, 8/4/ 8/6, blotting now while White's board is unmade and 3s are duplicated to hit and cover. I hate to volunteer a blot that's favored to be hit, but it looks to me like 6/2 6/4 is highly likely to blot anyway later when White's board will be more ready to contain you (if you don't roll 66 44 or 22, you play one checker from the 8 point, and after that only 66 44 22 11 and 64 clear without blotting).
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