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DQ: Run from the anchor and cover?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 7 October 2012, at 4:01 p.m.

In Response To: DQ: Run from the anchor and cover? (leobueno)

(1) You're behind in the race 115-126 after your play, which suggests that racing may not be your best chance to win.

(2) Your opponent's position is inflexible. 5 checkers behind your anchor. 2 spares on the 8 point. No spares on the 17, 13 and 6 points. So he's going to be giving you some shots. So racing is even less likely to be your best chance.

(3) There's a plausible case, nevertheless, for 21/15. As you stand now, there are two zones you want to cover -- the 21-14 points and the 15 to 8 points. Making the 15 point strengthens your control in the outfield. Opponent's position is so weak that you cover the 21-14 points rather well with just a single checker instead of an anchor. For now he has few ways to attack you. So I look at 21/15. Still, I reject 21/15 because although it looks ok now, if Opponent manages to strengthen his board (making the 3 or 1 points or both), or adds a builder to the 6 point, or makes another point or two in front of you with doublets, suddenly your single checker on the 21 point becomes much more vulnerable. And you're still losing the race.

(4) So I'm not giving up the 21 point yet. And I'm not giving up the 13 point. So the six is 15/9. And since hardly anything will hit on your nine point that wouldn't leave two or three blots, I'm going to take advantage of Opponent's weak position to start a home board point. 6/4 starts the better point, but 5/3 starts a good point and the distribution looks a lot better. So my play is 15/9 5/3.

I wouldn't count ways that 6/4 and 5/3 lead to board improvement next turn, but if you did you'd see that after either play and no hit you'll be making the 4 point or 3 point or both with any number except 66 and 55, since you'll probably run with those. Either play is much better for board making than 15/7, which only gives you 14 ways to make the 4 point or 3 point or both.

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