BGonline.org Forums

64S-43Z-31P-33

Posted By: Smcrtorchs
Date: Monday, 8 October 2012, at 9:47 p.m.

In Response To: 64S-43Z-31P-33 (Timothy Chow)

Starting with the hitting plays, 13/7* 7/1* puts 2 on the bar and blue can pick up the 3rd white blot in the blitzing process. White can no longer make a broken 5 point prime next turn, neither can he hit loose on the 4 pt. Blue has 10 in the zone, however blue has a 1 point board and white has his 5 point, so finishing the blitz would include leaving many shots for blue. If white hits one of these blots at the beginning then he could carry a blitz of his own, while if he hits a shot later then things will not be easy for him.

13/7(2) makes a point, makes a 3.5 prime, leaves few shots to blue's side of the board and 16 & 26 play bad for white as a bonus. There are other hitting plays where u make inside board points, but they leave too many blots and they do not make a mini prime.

Comparing risks and benefits of the 2 plays.

13/7* 7/1*

2 on the bar No broken 5 point prime next turn for white No hitting loose on the 4 pt next turn for white. Possibility to hit white's third checker.

It leaves 1 direct shot.

13/7 (2)

It makes the bar point It starts a 3.5 mini prime. 1 checker on the bar.

I think that making sure that white will have no threats next turn (broken 5 prime and hitting loose on the 4) plus the small blitzing potential have equal value with the bar point the mini prime and the cost of the direct shot all together. So the extra checker on the bar and the possibility that blue will hit white's third checker should give some extra equity to the double hitting play.

From the non hitting plays I cannot imagine making the 18 point as the last 3 will be pretty bad. 24/219/3 6/3 seems the best non hitting play to me in a close race. Its distribution is not that bad and it makes 2 points instead of 1. But the value of Blue's 3 point should be small here and it would diminish if white makes the 7 point next turn. Moreover white has 4 & 6 to cover and 5 to lift and most importantly there is no prime.

--> 13/7* 7/1*

Messages In This Thread

• 64S-43Z-31P-33
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 8 October 2012, at 5:04 p.m.
  • 64S-43Z-31P-33
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 8 October 2012, at 5:27 p.m.
  • 64S-43Z-31P-33
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 8 October 2012, at 5:34 p.m.
  • 64S-43Z-31P-33
    Smcrtorchs -- Monday, 8 October 2012, at 9:47 p.m.
  • Rollout: 64S-43Z-31P-33
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 9 October 2012, at 10:30 p.m.